1 thought on “How to analyze the golden gain trend”
Vivian
—— The following data and analysis refer to the "Analysis Report of the China Gold Industry Market Prospective and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" released by the Foresight Industry Research Institute. It gold, as the only special product with dual attributes of goods and currencies, is the material basis of the most loyal assets and modern credit currencies. Historically, gold has an irreplaceable and important role in responding to the financial crisis, the disaster of war, and the protection of national economic security. In early 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic outbreak of the world's fastest, the most widely scope, and the most difficulty ", and the price of gold continued to increase in the context of global economic pressure. The global gold supply in short supply is alleviated (1) Global gold supply upward change Gold mining belongs to global business, all contour except Antarctica, gold is from various types and scale Ore refining production. From the perspective of global gold supply, the official statistics of the World Gold Association show that the global gold supply volume has changed from 2012-2019. In 2019, the global gold supply volume was 6219.4 tons, an increase of 4.15%over the previous year. Note: Global Gold Supply Data = Gold Mine Production Manufacturer's Clean Set Gold Recycling Volume London Gold and Silver Markets. The data comes from the World Gold Association. The specifically, the global gold ore supply has the largest number of gold ore, followed by the London Gold and Silver Market Association and the supply of recycling gold. In 2019, the global gold ore production volume was 3530.9 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous year. In 2019, the supply of the London Gold and Silver Market Association and the recycling funds were significantly improved from the previous year, respectively, 1393 tons and 1296.2 tons, respectively. If's representative country of the world's gold ore production countries, China, Russia, and Australia ranked among the top three. Among them, China is the country with the largest number of gold ore output. 10.77%of the global gold ore output, Russia and Australia's gold ore output of 329.5 tons and 325.1 tons, respectively, the output accounted for 9.33%and 9.21%, respectively. The concentration of global gold ore output is high. From the perspective of the Gold output data of various countries in 2019, the top ten national gold ore output in the top ten national gold ore production has a total of 2040.1 tons, accounting for 57.78%, while global gold gold, while global gold gold The output of gold ore in the first 20 countries of ore production was 2723.6 tons, accounting for 77.14%, which shows that the national concentration of the world's gold ore output is high. (2) Global gold investment demand is stretched According to the World Gold Association data, global gold demand in 2012-2019 shows a fluctuation change, of which global gold consumption declines year by year in 2012-2019, 2016-2019 The annual demand is relatively stable. In 2019, the global gold consumption was 5782.7 tons, an increase of 1.93%over the previous year. 2019 Global gold demand for the field, affected by the rise in gold prices, suppressed the needs of gold ornaments and the demand for gold technology, but affected by the continuous upgrading of the Sino -US trade war, the global economic instability, etc. The investment value attributes are gradually emerging, and the demand for investment and the central bank's reserves has increased significantly. Specifically, the consumption of jewelry and technology in 2019 was 2,122.6 tons and 326 tons, respectively, which were significantly decreased from the previous year. However, the gold demand for investment, the central bank and the London Gold and Silver Association increased from the previous year, with 1273.4 tons, 667.7 tons, and 1393 tons. The global gold supply in short supply is alleviated (1) China's gold supply downward change According to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, the output of raw materials gold in 2012-2019 rose first and then decreased. The trend of trend was 380.23 tons in 2019, ranking first in the world for 13 consecutive years. Compared with 2018, it reduced production by 20.89 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 5.21%. Affected by factors such as the clearance of mining rights in the nature reserve, the transfer of mining rights transfer income, cyanockera as a hazardous waste management, and depletion of mineral resources, the output of mining gold in key cash -producing provinces (districts) in Henan, Fujian, and Xinjiang declined. The first half of 20120, my country's domestic raw material gold output was 170.07 tons, compared with the same period in 2019, the reduction of 10.61 tons, a decrease of 5.87%year -on -year. Among them, Golden Mineral Gold completed 141.82 tons and 28.25 tons of non -ferrous by -production gold. In the first half of the year, the top 5 provinces of mineral gold production were Shandong, Henan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, with a total of 57.69 tons of mineral gold. Most provinces have declined in the output of mineral gold. Among them, Hubei, Anhui and Guizhou and other provinces are affected by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia. The decline in mineral gold production has decreased by more than 20%; Tibet, Qinghai and Hebei provinces are affected by the epidemic situation and increased production capacity. Mineral gold production has achieved an increase of more than 25%. (2) The overall decline in China's gold demand From the perspective of gold consumption, my country's gold consumption in 2014-2018 increased year by year. In 2019, the actual consumption of gold in the country is 1002.78 tons. Compared with 2018, compared with 2018 Fall 12.91%. Among them: 676.23 tons of gold jewelry, a year -on -year decrease of 8.16%; gold bars and gold coins were 225.80 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 26.97%; industrial and other 100.75 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 4.90%. Affected by the increase in economic downlink pressure, domestic gold consumption was weak, especially due to the continuous rise in gold prices in the second half of 2019, and gold jewelry consumption declined significantly. The gold jewelry processing industry continues to reduce inventory, but traditional gold retailers such as China Gold Jewelry and Shanghai Yuyuan can still rely on expanding franchise to maintain sales growth. The actual consumption of gold in the first half of 20120 was 323.29 tons. Affected by multiple factors such as prevention and control of epidemic, slower economic growth, and rising gold prices. Gold consumption fell significantly, a year -on -year decrease of 38.25%. (3) The high degree of activity of the gold market is high The gold market has also attracted more and more attention from investment institutions. In 2019, the total transaction volume of all gold varieties of Shanghai Gold Exchange was 68,600 tons (bilateral), an increase of 0.12%year -on -year, and the turnover was 2.149 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.69%year -on -year; (Bilateral), a year -on -year increase of 186.84%, and the turnover of 29.99 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 238.92%. On December 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's golden options were officially listed, adding new risk aversion tools to the variety of gold transactions. (4) Gold prices rose in 2020 The global trade friction impact and public health incidents since 2020 have promoted the sharp rise in international gold prices. According to data from business clubs, the price of gold market has fluctuated since 2020, and the gold market price has reached 441.1 yuan/gram on August 1, 2020. 2020 The global trade frictions represented by the United States continued to exacerbate, and the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic made people's expectations of the economy less optimistic, promoting the increase in gold prices with dual attributes of goods and currencies. In the short term, in the short term With the further deterioration of Sino -US relations, the price of gold will continue to maintain a high level.
—— The following data and analysis refer to the "Analysis Report of the China Gold Industry Market Prospective and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" released by the Foresight Industry Research Institute.
It gold, as the only special product with dual attributes of goods and currencies, is the material basis of the most loyal assets and modern credit currencies. Historically, gold has an irreplaceable and important role in responding to the financial crisis, the disaster of war, and the protection of national economic security. In early 2020, the new crown pneumonia epidemic outbreak of the world's fastest, the most widely scope, and the most difficulty ", and the price of gold continued to increase in the context of global economic pressure.
The global gold supply in short supply is alleviated
(1) Global gold supply upward change
Gold mining belongs to global business, all contour except Antarctica, gold is from various types and scale Ore refining production. From the perspective of global gold supply, the official statistics of the World Gold Association show that the global gold supply volume has changed from 2012-2019. In 2019, the global gold supply volume was 6219.4 tons, an increase of 4.15%over the previous year.
Note: Global Gold Supply Data = Gold Mine Production Manufacturer's Clean Set Gold Recycling Volume London Gold and Silver Markets. The data comes from the World Gold Association.
The specifically, the global gold ore supply has the largest number of gold ore, followed by the London Gold and Silver Market Association and the supply of recycling gold. In 2019, the global gold ore production volume was 3530.9 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous year. In 2019, the supply of the London Gold and Silver Market Association and the recycling funds were significantly improved from the previous year, respectively, 1393 tons and 1296.2 tons, respectively.
If's representative country of the world's gold ore production countries, China, Russia, and Australia ranked among the top three. Among them, China is the country with the largest number of gold ore output. 10.77%of the global gold ore output, Russia and Australia's gold ore output of 329.5 tons and 325.1 tons, respectively, the output accounted for 9.33%and 9.21%, respectively.
The concentration of global gold ore output is high. From the perspective of the Gold output data of various countries in 2019, the top ten national gold ore output in the top ten national gold ore production has a total of 2040.1 tons, accounting for 57.78%, while global gold gold, while global gold gold The output of gold ore in the first 20 countries of ore production was 2723.6 tons, accounting for 77.14%, which shows that the national concentration of the world's gold ore output is high.
(2) Global gold investment demand is stretched
According to the World Gold Association data, global gold demand in 2012-2019 shows a fluctuation change, of which global gold consumption declines year by year in 2012-2019, 2016-2019 The annual demand is relatively stable. In 2019, the global gold consumption was 5782.7 tons, an increase of 1.93%over the previous year.
2019 Global gold demand for the field, affected by the rise in gold prices, suppressed the needs of gold ornaments and the demand for gold technology, but affected by the continuous upgrading of the Sino -US trade war, the global economic instability, etc. The investment value attributes are gradually emerging, and the demand for investment and the central bank's reserves has increased significantly. Specifically, the consumption of jewelry and technology in 2019 was 2,122.6 tons and 326 tons, respectively, which were significantly decreased from the previous year. However, the gold demand for investment, the central bank and the London Gold and Silver Association increased from the previous year, with 1273.4 tons, 667.7 tons, and 1393 tons.
The global gold supply in short supply is alleviated
(1) China's gold supply downward change
According to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, the output of raw materials gold in 2012-2019 rose first and then decreased. The trend of trend was 380.23 tons in 2019, ranking first in the world for 13 consecutive years. Compared with 2018, it reduced production by 20.89 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 5.21%. Affected by factors such as the clearance of mining rights in the nature reserve, the transfer of mining rights transfer income, cyanockera as a hazardous waste management, and depletion of mineral resources, the output of mining gold in key cash -producing provinces (districts) in Henan, Fujian, and Xinjiang declined.
The first half of 20120, my country's domestic raw material gold output was 170.07 tons, compared with the same period in 2019, the reduction of 10.61 tons, a decrease of 5.87%year -on -year. Among them, Golden Mineral Gold completed 141.82 tons and 28.25 tons of non -ferrous by -production gold. In the first half of the year, the top 5 provinces of mineral gold production were Shandong, Henan, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, with a total of 57.69 tons of mineral gold. Most provinces have declined in the output of mineral gold. Among them, Hubei, Anhui and Guizhou and other provinces are affected by the epidemic of new crown pneumonia. The decline in mineral gold production has decreased by more than 20%; Tibet, Qinghai and Hebei provinces are affected by the epidemic situation and increased production capacity. Mineral gold production has achieved an increase of more than 25%.
(2) The overall decline in China's gold demand
From the perspective of gold consumption, my country's gold consumption in 2014-2018 increased year by year. In 2019, the actual consumption of gold in the country is 1002.78 tons. Compared with 2018, compared with 2018 Fall 12.91%. Among them: 676.23 tons of gold jewelry, a year -on -year decrease of 8.16%; gold bars and gold coins were 225.80 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 26.97%; industrial and other 100.75 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 4.90%. Affected by the increase in economic downlink pressure, domestic gold consumption was weak, especially due to the continuous rise in gold prices in the second half of 2019, and gold jewelry consumption declined significantly. The gold jewelry processing industry continues to reduce inventory, but traditional gold retailers such as China Gold Jewelry and Shanghai Yuyuan can still rely on expanding franchise to maintain sales growth.
The actual consumption of gold in the first half of 20120 was 323.29 tons. Affected by multiple factors such as prevention and control of epidemic, slower economic growth, and rising gold prices. Gold consumption fell significantly, a year -on -year decrease of 38.25%.
(3) The high degree of activity of the gold market is high
The gold market has also attracted more and more attention from investment institutions. In 2019, the total transaction volume of all gold varieties of Shanghai Gold Exchange was 68,600 tons (bilateral), an increase of 0.12%year -on -year, and the turnover was 2.149 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.69%year -on -year; (Bilateral), a year -on -year increase of 186.84%, and the turnover of 29.99 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 238.92%. On December 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's golden options were officially listed, adding new risk aversion tools to the variety of gold transactions.
(4) Gold prices rose in 2020
The global trade friction impact and public health incidents since 2020 have promoted the sharp rise in international gold prices. According to data from business clubs, the price of gold market has fluctuated since 2020, and the gold market price has reached 441.1 yuan/gram on August 1, 2020.
2020 The global trade frictions represented by the United States continued to exacerbate, and the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic made people's expectations of the economy less optimistic, promoting the increase in gold prices with dual attributes of goods and currencies. In the short term, in the short term With the further deterioration of Sino -US relations, the price of gold will continue to maintain a high level.